Every November, GovBrew sits down with a stack of legal analyses, draft rules, and agency guidance memos to map out how the next year in federal contracting is likely to unfold. This year, the signals are loud and clear: 2026 is going to be a year of tightened compliance, accelerated acquisition timelines, and major structural shifts in how the government buys.

Here’s where we see us heading—and what you should be preparing your teams for now.

Small business contracting has been on a record-setting streak, and 2026 will continue that trend—but with significantly sharper edges.

The biggest disruptor for 2026 is the full implementation of the SBA’s Final Rule on Recertification. We are no longer in the era where you can be "small" at the contract award and coast for five years. The new rules regarding recertification after mergers and acquisitions mean that if you trigger a disqualifying recertification, you are likely ineligible for future set-aside orders on that vehicle.

This changes the M&A calculus entirely. In 2026, we expect:

If you are a small business looking to exit, or a large partner relying on a small business, the value of that backlog just got much harder to calculate.

We say this every year, but this time I mean it: GSA is becoming the center of gravity.

With OASIS+ entering Phase II and re-opening solicitations in early 2026, plus the persistent pressure on agencies to use Best-in-Class (BIC) vehicles, the days of "open market" bidding are dwindling.

If you’ve been getting by without a strong schedule presence, that window is closing. In 2026, competitive advantage will belong to companies that:

• Invest early in task-order capture on GWACs and schedules.

• Stay ahead of GSA compliance requirements (CSP, PRC, TAA).

• Treat the schedule as a pipeline, not a catalog.

GSA is no longer just "one channel." For many service requirements, it is the only channel agencies have the time or staff to use.

After years of delays, the CMMC Final Rule is effective, and the phased rollout is hitting solicitations.

In 2026, we will move past "talking about CMMC" to "bidding with CMMC." You will see Level 1 and Level 2 (Self) requirements appear in a wave of solicitations this year. For high-sensitivity work, Level 2 (C3PAO) requirements will appear sooner than the charts predict, as program managers look to de-risk critical supply chains.

The hard truth: Primes will start screening subcontractors for their SPRS scores before issuing teaming agreements. If you are still treating CMMC as an IT checklist rather than a bid qualification gate, you are already behind.

While we initially looked at political contributions as a risk area, the bigger threat in 2026 is the new federal focus on government efficiency.

With the rise of "efficiency" audits and a push to cut waste (often headlined by the new Department of Government Efficiency initiatives), contractors should expect:

The government is looking to trim fat. Ensure your rates are defensible and your billing is spotless.

If you work with DOD, 2026 will bring some of the most transformative changes in a decade.

The Pentagon’s shift toward a "Warfighting Acquisition System" is real. Initiatives like Replicator (now entering its second iteration focused on counter-drone tech) are proving that DOD can buy fast when it wants to.

We will see continued use of OTAs and Commercial Solutions Openings to accelerate prototyping. But the expectation has shifted: DOD is no longer just interested in cool prototypes; they need production capacity. The winners in 2026 will be the companies that can demonstrate not just a working technology, but a secure, scalable supply chain to build it.

The Revolutionary FAR Overhaul is one of the biggest structural shifts happening under the radar.

Initiated by Executive Order, this project is rewriting the FAR in "plain language" and stripping out non-statutory requirements. While this sounds like a simplification, it creates a dangerous interim period for contractors.

As regulations move out of the FAR and into agency-specific "guiding principles" or "practitioner albums," the rulebook becomes fragmented. If you only track the FAR text, you will miss the operational guidance that Contracting Officers are actually using to make decisions. 2026 will be the year of "policy by memo."

If I were advising your executive team today, here’s the playbook I’d hand them:

2026 will be a year defined by speed—faster buying, faster compliance cycles, and faster technology adoption. The contractors who thrive will be the ones who treat these changes not as hurdles, but as opportunities to move smarter than the competition.